Fascinating. I know people who believe that measles just went into the low part of the natural cycle… that the introduction of the vaccine happened to coincide and thus mistakenly was credited. Yeah, wtf.
Is there insufficient data post 2004 or is the reappearance just not significant enough yet to show in this representation?
Outbreaks and recessions… yeah. That is true enough that there are cycles (you can see it in the graph above), but not to the extent these people claim.
Ah, okay, I was thinking of a different definition of "natural cycle." I had an image in my head of a virus just kicking up its feet and saying "well, time for my yearly vacation." 🙂
Outbreaks and recessions, that's believable as an irregular but naturally occurring cycle as the virus does or doesn't travel and does or doesn't mutate. But no, not on 50 year scales.
They do have cycles. The dynamics of an outbreak were modelled by Professor Robert May over twenty years back, back when non-linear dynamics were all the rage, saw him lecture about it. the length of the cycle depends on all kinds of variables, but for measles it's only two or three years if I recall.
Fascinating. I know people who believe that measles just went into the low part of the natural cycle… that the introduction of the vaccine happened to coincide and thus mistakenly was credited. Yeah, wtf.
Is there insufficient data post 2004 or is the reappearance just not significant enough yet to show in this representation?
People claim viruses and bacteria have "natural cycles"?
Outbreaks and recessions… yeah. That is true enough that there are cycles (you can see it in the graph above), but not to the extent these people claim.
Ah, okay, I was thinking of a different definition of "natural cycle." I had an image in my head of a virus just kicking up its feet and saying "well, time for my yearly vacation." 🙂
Outbreaks and recessions, that's believable as an irregular but naturally occurring cycle as the virus does or doesn't travel and does or doesn't mutate. But no, not on 50 year scales.
They do have cycles. The dynamics of an outbreak were modelled by Professor Robert May over twenty years back, back when non-linear dynamics were all the rage, saw him lecture about it. the length of the cycle depends on all kinds of variables, but for measles it's only two or three years if I recall.
Consider me educated, I had no idea. I'll have to do some more serious googling on the subject now.
great visualisation!