Category Archives: Science - Page 3

10 Interesting Facts About the Placebo Effect

  1. Given a sugar pill (which has no physical effect) people with certain conditions not only report feeling better, but see actual improvements in their condition.
  2. Called the dose-response placebo effect, given two sugar pills, people report twice the benefit of one sugar pill (Demonstration to medical students of placebo responses and non-drug factors, Blackwell, 1972).  Interestingly, the Blackwell study also showed that pink placebo pills worked better as a stimulant and blue placebo pills worked better as a relaxant. There have been multiple other studies demonstrating this effect. See also Shapiro (1970) and the work by Moerman where he looked at clinical trials with ulcer treatments.
  3. If someone believes a placebo has a negative effect, they can experience that negative effect.  This is called a nocebo. (Magne Flaten, Terje Simonsen, and Harald Olsen, “Drug-Related Information Generates Placebo and Nocebo Responses That Modify the Drug Response,” Psychososomatic Medicine, 61, no. 2 (1999): 250-255)
  4. If a sugar pill is described as a muscle relaxant it will cause muscle relaxation.  If the same type of sugar pill is described as causing muscle tension, it will produce muscle tension.(Placebo-induced side effects. Shapiro, Arthur K.; Chassan, Jacob; Morris, Louis A.; Frick, Robert, Journal of Operational Psychiatry, Vol 6(1), 1974, 43-46)
  5. Placebos can produce the same side-effects that the real drug the person thinks they’re taking would also produce. (Asbjørn Hróbjartsson, and Peter C. Gøtzsche, “Is the Placebo Powerless? — An Analysis of Clinical Trials Comparing Placebo with No Treatment,” The New England Journal of Medicine, 344 (2001): 1594-1602, 10.1056/NEJM200105243442106)
  6. When conducting a study, it is an error to assume that your treatment produced the improvement and everyone seeing improvement under the placebo are “only” experiencing placebo effects.  It could very well be that everyone who experience an improvement were experiencing a placebo effect. (Asbjørn Hróbjartsson, and Peter C. Gøtzsche, “Is the Placebo Powerless? — An Analysis of Clinical Trials Comparing Placebo with No Treatment,” The New England Journal of Medicine, 344 (2001): 1594-1602, 10.1056/NEJM200105243442106)
  7. Saltwater placebos administered via syringe are more effective than sugar pills. The original study is by Traut & Passarelli (1957). There’s been follow up studies since then, including “Do medical devices have enhanced placebo effects?” by Ted J Kaptchuk, Peter Goldman, David A Stone, William B Stason
  8. Pacemakers improve heart function after they’ve been put in, but before they’ve been switched on. (Placebo effect of pacemaker implantation in obstructive hypertrophic cardiomyopathy Cecilia Linde, Fredrik Gadler, Lukas Kappenberger, Lars Rydén. The American journal of cardiology 15 March 1999 (volume 83 issue 6 Pages 903-907))
  9. Give people a sugar pill and tell them it’s a stimulant and they get stimulated.  Give people a relaxant but tell them it’s a stimulant and they get more even more stimulated.  Give people a relaxant, tell them it’s a relaxant and they have more molecules of the relaxant in their blood plasma than the people you gave a relaxant to but told them it was a stimulant. (Magne Flaten, Terje Simonsen, and Harald Olsen, “Drug-Related Information Generates Placebo and Nocebo Responses That Modify the Drug Response,” Psychososomatic Medicine, 61, no. 2 (1999))
  10. We’re still pretty confused about the placebo effect and it’s causes.  There’s a mishmash of different things going on and we’re still picking them apart. Also, it’s really hard to design studies!

Dolphin fight.

The male dolphins of Shark Bay, Australia, are known to marine biologists for their messy social entanglements. Their relationships with each other are so unusual — they’re more like the intricate webs of the Mafia than the vertical hierarchies of chimpanzees — that, in a new paper, one team of scientists argues that the dolphins live in a social system that is “unique among mammals.” Intriguingly, the researchers also suggest that these complex, and often cooperative, relationships may stem in part from one simple, unexpected factor: the dolphins’ low cruising speed.

Interesting stuff.

However, one part of this article got me thinking about a tangential subject.  Dolphin’s rights.  Every so often I’ll hear about people calling for giving dolphins rights like humans give each other.  I guess this is because of the dolphin’s intelligence.

At first glance, dolphins seem to have a somewhat similar social system. Two or three adult males form a tight alliance and cooperate to herd a female for mating. (Female dolphins rarely form strong alliances.) Other male teams may try to spirit away the female—particularly if she is in estrus. To fight back, the first-level alliances form partnerships with other first-level alliances, thus creating a larger second-level alliance. Some of these second-level alliances have as many as 14 dolphins and can last 15 years or more. On some occasions, the second-level alliance can call in the troops from yet another group, “a third-order alliance,” as the researchers call them—leading to huge battles with more than 20 dolphins biting and bashing each other with their heads and tails over the right to keep or steal a single female.

Dolphins can be jerks.

I’m not any sort of expert about dolphins, but a surface reading of this makes this sound like a brutal sort of arrangement that wouldn’t be tolerated in civilized human society.

If we grant dolphins the same sort of rights we grant humans, are we obligated to try and police their behavior and protect those dolphins that are less fortunate than others?

Science with a capital S is better than you.

So, yesterday I shared this post on Google+:

This boulder on the moon was set a-rollin’ by whatever process. The interesting thing to me is that you can see some craters overlapping the track it created as it rolled.

From this, scientists estimate this track was created 50-100 million years ago.

Notice the impact craters overlapping the track created by the rolling boulder.

This got me to thinking about how they determined the age.  While I haven’t talked to the scientists who came up with this age figure, I imagine it went something like this:

  1. Have a model for frequency of asteroid impacts over time per unit of area of Moon surface.
  2. Determine area of tracks.
  3. Count impact craters overlapping tracks.
  4. Using impact frequency model determine how much time would have to pass before you would see the number of overlapping impact craters.

The interesting thing here is that, going by a layperson’s definition of “wrong”, the number you come up with in this scenario could be completely wrong.  I think a lot of reporting on science, and even the statements scientists make to the public, are “wrong” in the same manner.

You see, the 50-100 million year figure doesn’t make a lot of sense in isolation.  It should have probabilities assigned to it.  The real answer isn’t “50-100 million years”, it’s a, for example, (rough and dirty) graph like this:

Impact Probabilities

You see, it’s possible that the asteroid impacts all happened yesterday.  It’s unlikely, but it’s possible.

So anyway, this is usually acknowledged when actually doing Science-with-a-capital-S, it’s just that this is often lost when communicating with the public.  The thing I find interesting about this, is that, this view of things having probabilities attached to them is the way the word actually works and yet the general attitude people have doesn’t acknowledge this.

GTFO Naked Girl. I'm doing science!

Most people operate as if things either happened or not.  Of being real or not real.  Even things that you would say you’re 100% sure of…like the color of the sky…have a probability assigned to them.  You may be 100% sure, but that 100% is a measure of your over-confidence, not of reality.  For example, there’s a non-zero chance you may be living in a dream or hallucination.

What about your values, your religion, your politics?  Are your values self-consistent?  Is there a God?  Do your political leanings actually lead to the type of world you want?  There’s probabilities assigned to all of ’em, and that probability is a lot lower than the previous example about the color of the sky.

The Sun!

Click each image to enlargenate it.

sm_solarnirvana

Taken by Alan Friedman in the wavelength of hydrogen alpha light.

174735main_LEFTFullDisk

Taken by NASA’s STEREO satellites.  False color image taken in the 1 million degree C range.

174719main_LEFTREDSouthPole304

Another STEREO image.  False color in the 60,000-80,000 C range.

174606main_Image-4A-RIGHT

STEREO image.  False color in 2.5 million degree range.

174602main_FullDisk3D

STEREO image in 3D!  Need red/cyan 3d glasses to see the 3d effect.

Fleeing leopard

Forest Hill resident and apparently amateur shutterbug Brenda Rusnak captured the magnificent and unusual scene on the Serengeti: a leopard bounding atop a tree, with the lightness of a character from Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon, as it escapes from the roaring lion a branch below that has laid claim to the leopard’s quarry – a freshly killed gazelle.

Text from this article.

Click image to get a much larger size.

Animal eye photos

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A bunch of close-up photos of the eyes of different animals.

Mirrors are counter-intuitive

Most people don’t understand how mirrors work.  For example, when presented with the following scenario, most people get it wrong.

Imagine you’re at the entrance to a narrow corridor and further down, several feet away, hanging on the right-hand wall, there are three rectangular mirrors (30cm x 45cm) at head height. At what point, as you proceed down the corridor, do you think you’ll be able to see your face in the mirrors?

In another demonstration of the fallibility of our intuitions when it comes to mirrors:

If I asked you to draw a full-size outline of your head on a flip chart, and then to draw the outline of your head as it appears in the mirror, would you draw the two outlines the same size? You shouldn’t do because the mirror image of your head (as it appears to you) is exactly half its true size, irrespective of how far you are from the mirror, a fact that few people realise.

Benford’s Law and corporate lies

Benford’s Law is one of those things that has always made me scratch my head.  It just doesn’t make sense!  Here’s what the law boils down to:

A second earth-shattering fact is that there are more numbers in the universe that begin with the digit 1 than 2, or 3, or 4, or 5, or 6, or 7, or 8, or 9.  And more numbers that begin with 2 than 3, or 4, and so on.  This relationship holds for the lengths of rivers, the populations of cities, molecular weights of chemicals, and any number of other categories.  What a blow to any of us who purport to have mastered the basic facts of the world around us!

One of the cool things this law allows us to do is to detect inaccurate corporate accounting!

In fact, Benford’s law has been used in legal cases to detect corporate fraud, because deviations from the law can indicate that a company’s books have been manipulated.

Jialan Wang wanted to find out if corporate accounting deviated from Benford’s law and how that changed over time.

So according to Benford’s law, accounting statements are getting less and less representative of what’s really going on inside of companies.  The major reform that was passed after Enron and other major accounting standards barely made a dent.
Next, I looked at Benford’s law for three industries: finance, information technology, and manufacturing.  The finance industry showed a huge surge in the deviation from Benford’s from 1981-82, coincident with two major deregulatory acts that sparked the beginnings of that other big mortgage debacle, the Savings and Loan Crisis.  The deviation from Benford’s in the finance industry reached a peak in 1988 and then decreased starting in 1993 at the tail end of the S&L fraud wave, not matching its 1988 level until … 2008.
Read the post with more data here.

Math elementary education

I think elementary math education in the USA is, on average, quite bad. The worst part about it is that the mental habits acquired during these formative years are nearly impossible to break. I’m fairly competent at math now (though, I don’t know as much as I’d like), but I still struggle against the attitudes and habits from school. How much more understanding would I have if my early education had been more appropriate?

Numerical arithmetic should look to children like a simpler and faster way of doing things that they know how to do already, not a set of mysterious recipes for getting right answers to meaningless questions.
– John Holt, How Children Fail

This reminds me of the essay Guessing the Teacher’s Password by Eliezer Yudkowsky:

Suppose the teacher presents you with a confusing problem involving a metal plate next to a radiator; the far side feels warmer than the side next to the radiator. The teacher asks “Why?” If you say “I don’t know”, you have no chance of getting a gold star – it won’t even count as class participation. But, during the current semester, this teacher has used the phrases “because of heat convection”, “because of heat conduction”, and “because of radiant heat”. One of these is probably what the teacher wants. You say, “Eh, maybe because of heat conduction?”

This is not a hypothesis about the metal plate. This is not even a proper belief. It is an attempt to guess the teacher’s password.

I worry about my 2-year-old daughter’s future. Especially given the fact that I don’t know how to find good teachers. There is no thriving industry of teacher and school reviews like there is for some of the other products we use (see gadgets and cars, for example).

Understanding Physics

This image is a reproduction of an original pa...

Image via Wikipedia

 

I’m a big fan of all sorts of books.

I read lots of science fiction.  It’s my go-to genre when I’m bored and want to read something.  You would assume my favorite book would fall within the genre, I know I made that assumption.

Today I realized that wasn’t the case.  Understanding Physics by Isaac Asimov holds this distinction.  I read this first probably in junior high and it just blew me away.   I was always an underachiever in school.  A lot of that had to do with the fact that, while I knew I was smart, I didn’t feel like I was smart enough to understand complicated things.  This book changed all of that.

Asimov’s writing style is just fantastic when it comes to explaining topics.  In this book he does a great job of not only explaining how things work, but how we figured them out and how scientists depend on the work of their predecessors.

I would put this book somewhere between pop science books without a bit of math and a full-on textbook.  However, even though it has math in it, it is completely attainable to someone who normally only reads the pop science books.

I rarely re-read books, but I find myself reading this one every couple of years.  You will too.