Author Archives: Dustin - Page 62

An Illustrated Book of Bad Arguments

I have selected a small set of common errors in reasoning and visualized them using memorable illustrations that are supplemented with lots of examples. The hope is that the reader will learn from these pages some of the most common pitfalls in arguments and be able to identify and avoid them in practice.

An Illustrated Book of Bad Arguments
This book is aimed at newcomers to the field of logical reasoning, particularly those who, to borrow a phrase from Pascal, are so made that they understand best through visuals. I have selected a small set of common errors in reasoning and visualized them using memorable illustrations that are supplemented with lots of examples. The hope is that the reader will learn from these pages some of the most common pitfalls in arguments and be able to i…

Originally posted on Google+ · September 11, 2013

Nobody at the lab knew what my blood tests would cost

My doctor ordered 12 blood tests. He gave me the form ordering them and I showed up with that form and asked how much the tests were going to cost.

The research I had done indicated that many of the tests weren't as urgent as others, and since I have high deductible insurance, I would probably have to pay for them out of pocket. Because of this, I didn't want to end up getting a bunch of tests that cost me a ton of money.

Anyway, the people at the lab were dumbfounded by the question…they had no idea and no one knew how to find out! I'm supposed to call tomorrow when someone who might know this esoteric information might be there.

I can't help but think that a system where no one knows how much their product costs, and apparently no one asks how much the product costs, is somehow vulnerable to excessive prices and inefficiencies.

Originally posted on Google+ · September 10, 2013

Every Netflix Instant Watch series, sorted by IMDB rating

A table of every Netflix Instant Watch show, sortable by IMDB rating amongst other things.

IMDb: Every Netflix TV Series Sorted by IMDB Ranking – a list by Pacey7
Every TV series currently on Netflix Instant-Watch. Click “Sort by IMDB Ranking.” The list is in no specific order until you click this. No reality shows, kids shows, or miniseries.

Easy guide to find the best shows on Netflix. Will try to keep it up to date, please comment if a show needs to be added or removed. Thanks!

Show Recommendations:

http://www.facebook.com/SuggestAShow

http://www.twitter.com/SuggestAShow

Originally posted on Google+ · September 6, 2013

What sound does a fox make?

What sound does a fox make?  I never thought to ask the question, but for some reason I found the answers pretty interesting.

The vixen's scream sounds like a human being tortured!

Originally posted on Google+ · September 5, 2013

European men are 11 cm taller than in the 1870s

According to this study, since the 1870s European men have increased in height by 11 centimeters.

They attribute this to better health care and general sanitation.

I was vaguely aware of this idea via the background radiation of all the science information I've consumed over the years, but I wasn't aware it was such a substantial increase.

Men’s height up 11 cm on average since the industrial age

Originally posted on Google+ · September 2, 2013

Web sites aren’t golf carts

Today, I was telling my mom about a web app I’m developing for property owners, property managers, or landlords and she said something that got me thinking about a misconception some people have.  With concern she asked:

How do you know all of the reports that a landlord might want?

I kind of stuttered around because of course I don’t know all the reports landlords might want.  I didn’t know what to say because it threw me for a loop.  It was kind of like the owner of a horse and buggy asking the owner of those new-fangled car thingies, “but where do you put the reigns?”  We’re talking about different paradigms.

I’m fairly familiar with the business, I grew up around it, and I’ve read many books on the subject and interviewed a decent number of potential users of the product but I’m no accountant that spends all day, every day doing financials for a company with 10,000 apartment units.  I wouldn’t claim to know everything my users might need no matter who the potential audience of my site might be, and that doesn’t matter!

Web sites as applications are even better at this than software in general, but you don’t have to have every plausibly useful feature implemented on the day you push the site to production.  Over time the site just becomes more and more useful to its users.

Here’s how the ownership experience could work if a golf cart worked like a web application.

Web app as a golf cart

So you bought a golf cart.  Here it is:

It's clean!  It doesn't make funny noises!

It’s clean! It doesn’t make funny noises!

You use the cart for a few weeks, but it’s not really comfortable or as useful as it could be and the manufacturer recognizes this.

Then, one day you go out to take it a spin and it’s transformed!

Now our custom embroidered golf bag won't get wet if it starts raining.

Now our custom embroidered golf bag won’t get wet if it starts raining.

Amazingly, you didn’t spend any more money, or really do anything other than get usage out of it up to this point and all of a sudden it’s better!

This is nice.  But.  Always a “but”.  Golf cart users are a fickle bunch, and, well, it’s just not very stylish! This update to the golf cart gets rave reviews from the pragmatic crowd, but a lot of users shun it because it’s kinda ugly.

I’m sure you can guess what happened.

It's beautiful and not overdone at all.

It’s beautiful and not overdone at all.

All of your golf-cart-using buddies are so jealous.  You’re the envy of the neighborhood.

After some time golf cart owners start asking “If we’re riding around on wheels wouldn’t it be nice to be able to go places other than the next hole on the course?”

The manufacturer hears the cries.

You guessed it, a few days later you’ve got an electric car!

It goes on roads.

It goes on roads.

It’s cool.  It goes places.  It’s more featureful and useful than that original basic golf cart.

You get months of use out of it.  You can’t imagine it being any better.

One day, you go out to your garage and find it transformed yet again!

Now THIS is a golf cart!

Now THIS is a golf cart!

What exactly does this have to do with a web site?

Web sites (and software in general) aren’t a thing. When you create a website it’s an evolving, ever changing construct that continues to get better without any effort on the end users part.  It just gets better.

History's greatest tough people

Some excerpts:

Teddy Roosevelt
Flash back to 1884. After his wife died in childbirth, and his mother died of typhoid (On the same day. In the same house), Roosevelt moved out West to work as as a cowboy. A man with intentions on Roosevelt's ranch hired a killer named Paddock to get rid of him. Hearing of this, Roosevelt armed himself and rode over to Paddock's residence. He said:

"I understand you have threatened to kill me on sight. I have come over to see when you want to begin the killing."

Paddock did not bother Roosevelt again.

Sir Douglas Bader
Seven years later, Germany invaded Poland, and Bader was permitted to rejoin the RAF. Eight years after the accident, he made his first legless solo – choosing to fly part of it upside down at extremely low altitude. In the Battle of Britain he shot down twenty-six (26) Luftwaffe aircraft in a little over a year. During one fight, he ran out of ammunition, and so sliced off a German bomber's tailfin with his propellor.

Inés Ramírez
…after 12 hours of continual pain, Ramírez sat down on a bench and drank three small glasses of hard liquor. She then used a 15 centimetres kitchen knife to cut open her abdomen in a total of three attempts… After  operating on herself for an hour, she reached inside her uterus and  pulled out her baby boy. She then severed the umbilical cord with a pair of scissors and became unconscious. She used clothes to bandage her wound after regaining consciousness…

Who is history’s greatest badass, and why?
Answer (1 of 132): Hideaki Akaiwa.

When the March 2011 Tsunami hit his home town of Ishinomaki, Hideaki was at work.

Realising his wife was trapped in their home, he ignored the advice of professionals, who told him to wait for the army to arrive to provide search and rescue.

Instead he found…

Originally posted on Google+ · August 20, 2013

Example of a risk: “This.”

Found whilst searching for examples of existential risk.

Originally posted on Google+ · August 19, 2013

Heated mercury thiocyanate

T̹͈͈͙̼ͤͨo͎̜̼̗͖̻̭̚ ͖̼͍̦͔̜̳͊ͣ̍̔̈́̄͋ͫ̚i͉̹̔ͫ̓ͩ̚ͅn̫̣̤͖̮͈̍ͨ̐ͬ̑͋̈́̄ͅͅv̼̝̲̘̻̌͌̽̌̔̊ͤ̚o̲̫̔ͯ̿̍̅̒̏k̞̺̣̟̮̤̭̎͑ͦͪͧ͂͆͂ͅë͙͇̱̼́̐͒̀̉͋ ͍̰͇̤ͭ̿ͩͮ̉̄͌ͯṱ̳̮͓͚͍͎̖̐̌͒̎͒̾̍ͫh̜̲̹͉ͣ̋ͪ͑̈̓̚e͈ͧͩ̾ͬ̄ͩ ̪̖̮̀h̯̪͚͙ͤͪ̑̂̋i̮̦͉͚͎̤͚̙͆̋͐͐͌ͤͬ̂͋v̤̼͂ͧ͆̋e̦̳͖̮͓̱̥͖̻̾ͤ̀ͮͧ̄́-͇̬͓͎̱̖ͩ̎̾̽̾͆͌ͨ͛m̬̔ͪͅi͍͇͎̙̦͎̟̍̒n̻̬̂ͦd͇̩ͯͮͤ͐ͤ̏ ̼̭̖̣̠̫̗̍̓̈́ͧͭͧ͛͋r͕̪͎̰̈́̄ͯ̇̇̽̉ͭe̩̗̩̤̼̓̊̎͗ͬ̏ͭ̉p̱͔͈̦̯͖̑͑͆ͥͥ̑͒ͅȑ̩̝͍̜̗͌e̖̰͋ͦͭs̝͈̲͒ͣ͐̇̉̍͗e̦̩ͨ͐̍̍ͥͨ͊ṉ̬̞̼͕͙ͭ͆ͤ̍̂t̜͈̖̺͖̱͔͚͒̈́͌ị̱̯̭͔͍̝̋n͇̳͍̖̞̗̞̏̂̃̚g͖̥̩͉̝̤̜̘̋̽̓ ͍̦̬̤̻̖͈ͭ̌ͨ̎͊ͥ̑̐̚c͖̜̗͚̦ͧ͑h͖͉̼̋̑̈ͤͭa͚̪̝͔̺̖̩̅̔̆o̭̘̠͍̞͔̩̒̉̆̿͆̐́s̜̱̙͔͕̑ͧ́.̜̥̈
͓̥̖̓ͨI͍̱̱̬̥͐̋͗̑n̗̈̓͐ͩ̑ͤ͗ṿ͐ͨ͛̎̎ő̲̜̻̲͎̞̭̬ͦ̈̊̒̽͂̑k̼̳̘͎͈̟̤̪͛͂̇i̝ͭ̀͛̿n̝͓̪͚͕̒̅̆͒g̘̉̐̈́̑ ̩̥̻ͪ̾ͦ͗̒ͤt͉̣̭̂ͭ͊͑ͯ͆ͦh̘͓͕͖̳̤̲̪͐ͪ̈́ͣe̘̺͋̈́ ̫̠̲ͧ̉f͈̤͚̰̌̆̓ͩ͒͒̍̓ē̥̣̫̙̮̰͎ͦͧͬͥe̜̙͇͈̪̙ͮ̓́ͩ̄̉ḽ͖̬̙̲̰̟͗ͭi̠̣̬ͧ̆̒͗ͩͤṉ̘͉̐̽̄g͉̽ ͙͔̲̗̰͊̾́͌ͧo͇͇̠ͨ͛͑̄ͅf̘͚̹ͧͣͥ̎̓̂̒ͬͅ ̳̼͎̣͇͛̈́c͇̬͍̣̲̲͑ḥ̯͇̤̫̾̋͒͛̏̄̃̊a̞̲̪̝͚̻̼̭͑ͮ̌ͫ͗̇̎õ̬͊̔͗͋ͤs̹̻̱̩͙̱̘̦͍̏ͥ.͔̺̤̞͙̝̦̒
̘͚͑́̏͋ͩ̏W͙ͨ͆̾ỉ̫̥͎͓̜͓̺̼t̪͐̅ͮͪh̻͇̰͍̻̭̀̅ͅ ̰͍̙̭ͩ́͗̎͂ͅo̬̫ͭͨ̐͛ͥṳ͚̤͓͈̲̼ͥ̈́̂̆ͭ͊ͥ͐t̪͖͍͉̔ͣͦͦ̾͌̚ ̘̺̭̙͍͙̹̄͑̓̂̓̈͌̚o͙͑̀ṛ͕̬̣̫̻̘̮ͣ͂̈̇͗̾́̈́͋d͖̙̮͕͐̓̔́̎e̜̖̰̖̪̥̭̘͕ͯͯṟ̫͖̣͌̊͋́ͣ.̫̼̬̌̔̇̏̅ͥ
̟̳̰̰͕̲͚ͭ̅T̪̻͔̗͈̲͓ͨ̀ͧ̉h̼͓̬͎͎̦̫̾̽ͤ̊͂ȅ̻̮͓͇̐ ̦̼̫̹͕̋̈͊̃͐̾N̳̟̥̅̈̐ͤe̹̰͎͍̬̬̎̈́͗z̙̲͔̹͓̿̈̏ͣp͎͖͈̝̣̞͚̠̪̆̂̾e̲̫̣̮̤̜̺ͥ̽̋ͥ̐ͭ̉̿r̞̭̝̅͗ͦd̹ͥͣ́̋̒ͣ̍i̜̲̹̪̗͑̔̅̍a̜̱̫̙̘̼̦̓n̠̰̰͖̺ͬͨ͌ͅ ̟̹̘̞̩̪̥̬͖̍ͭ͐̉͌̎̀̇h̠̥̬̞͎̣͉̘̑̌̌̈̋i̻ͭ̉͊͆̇v͓͍̭̳́̓ͭͭe̩͖̻̱̰͍̩͙ͯ̈ͤ-͇̘̰͎͈̇̉ͯͪ̆ͩm̘̗ͦ̓̓̆ͭî̩̻̺̺̰̍̉̒͌n̙͉̬̺͕̺̽͐̽ͩͮ̿ͩͅd͍̠͔̟̹̼̮̻̋̾͌̀̏ͥ͆̎̇ ͈̟̠ͩ̒̊ọ̤ͤ̉̒̐ͨ̈́f͙̬͔̘̖̼̩̫͒̔͌̄̈͆ ̮͙̹̺̅ͭͤ̌͑͂̂c̝̈́́h͔̳̖̠̱͔̊̎ͫͥ̆͗̚a̮̪͍̞̮̣͖͊͗ͅo̰̺͇̟̝̣̰͓͉ͩ̅͊s̗͇̫ͤ̅ͯ͆ͤ̒͌.͔͙̥̦͇̘ͮ̌͋͆͂̍͊͆ ̺͕͊͐̓Z̩̰̤̬͂̔ͧͪ͋̽̆̚a͔̿͂͋l͉̭̘̝̮̜͆ͤ̌̃̄ͬͯ̓g̞͒͌̂ͣ̐̍ͧọ͇͍͔͍̗̪̤̲̽̿.͉͙̉̔̌̔̌̏
̦̀̒ͨ̽̈͛ͅH̝̮̙̻̟̪̋̉e̫̥͍̞̗̬ͤͥ̇̏̔ ̰̜̼͚̘̼̩͓̳̿͌̾̄̇ẉ̲̣̰̓̀ͫh͕̯̝̰̣̣̰̳ͭ̐̍͐͂̑ͩȱ͈̤͈̼ͣ̿̈́̅̈́ ̲̮̝̫̦̩̪̞̌̿W͖ͥ͑̈a̰̙̰̻̠̿͆ͬi͚̬̳͍̖̪̮̠͇̓̏́̿͊̀t̟͈̼̼̼̹̬̱ͩͤ̉ͧ̎͂s̟͎͍̭̦̘̠̀͗͒̀̋ ̼͙̮̺̣͂͑B͙̳̙̺͖͎͑e͈̩͖̗̠̺̫͈̾ḧ͇̜͙̟̗͕̝̭̣́͆͌̆̋̒̚i̞͙͍̣̪͓̘͖̓̈ͣ̌ͬ̇͌ͯn̯̜̖̻̣̟̔̊ͅd͖̖̝̙͓̼̭̭̭̈́ͦͮ̈́͆͒̚ ̭̺̽̐̅̋̂ͣͨT͙̜͖͓̥͎̺̺ͮ͌̀̍̏̐̍̎̊h̹̮̬̟̙̯͛̐̈̐ͧ̾ͪ͆e̯̫̲ͧ ̙͓̹̰̻͚̬͖ͤ̃ͦ̓ͥ̌ͬ̉Ẉ̟̪̹̤̩̙̂͛̄̿̎̋ã͈́̄l̤̮̰̝̯̄̏͋ͧ͋l̖͓̩̬͔̃.͈̍ͤͯͨͭ̍͂̄̆
͉͙̞͚͈̥͙̻̟ͬͯͬ̇Z̺̭͓͐̄̍̂ͨ͋̂̎ͦA̬̰̙̮͊̂̀͒͊͐L̺̲̥̬̜̓ͪ̋̽ͯ̊́̂G̳̼͙̲ͥ̀ͨͦO͚ͩ̊͊̆ͧͯͤ!̲̤̳͂̍͂

Originally posted on Google+ · August 19, 2013

Doctors are often not aware of clinical evidence

Big surprise, I know.

A study looking into the reason for regional differences in health care spending in the US.

We find patient demand is relatively unimportant in explaining variations. Physician organizational factors (such as peer effects) matter, but the single most important factor is physician beliefs about treatment: 36 percent of end-of-life spending, and 17 percent of U.S. health care spending, are associated with physician beliefs unsupported by clinical evidence.

Physician Beliefs and Patient Preferences: A New Look at Regional Variation in Health Care Spending

Originally posted on Google+ · August 19, 2013